The African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) is planning to cut 1,000 troops from its peacekeeping mission in the Horn of Africa country in February, and later completely withdraw.
Somali National Forces are expected to take over the responsibility of securing the country from al Shabab militants once Amisom complete its withdrawal.
Amisom draws its troops from Uganda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti. Allowances for the troops are paid by the EU, and logistical support – from food to medical supplies – is provided by the UN.
Under a transition plan agreed in 2017, Amisom is required to conduct gradual handover to Somali security forces, secure main supply routes, reduce the threat posed by al Shabab and conduct targeted offensive operations that support the transition plan.
When President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo was elected in February 2017, he promised to rebuild and reform the country’s military which has been crippled by corruption and lack of modern equipment. Three years later, a lot has been achieved but much needs to be done.
Amisom troops are in Somalia for 12 years now helping the government battle al Shabab and expand its authority outside Mogadishu.
Amisom plans to withdraw complete from Somalia by December 2020, and, if this happens, there would be security vacuum. The Somali army is not yet ready to take over the responsibility of securing the country.
Security gains by Amisom and the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled in late 2020 and early 2021 respectively could be in jeopardy if Amisom goes ahead in its withdrawal plan.
Although the Farmajo administration undertook some reforms within the military, like paying soldiers regularly and increasing their pay, eliminating middlemen and cutting out commanders who siphoned soldiers’ meager salary, lack of capacity and basic supplies and weapons will hinder its performance against al Shabab group which has been weakened but still capable of conducting high-profile attacks against civilians as well as state installations.
When the African Union (AU) troops complete their mission in Somalia, a UN Security Council resolution was that a United Nations peacekeeping mission replaces them. That plan has now been scrapped. The AU troops will hand over the responsibility of securing the country directly to Somali forces. Already, some places like Warsheikh Forward Operating Base, Mogadishu Stadium, Somali National University and Jaale Siyad Military Academy were handed over to Somali forces.
What does Kenya want in Jubbaland?
A row between Somalia and Kenya over Jubbaland region in Somalia is threatening the security situation on both sides of the border.
Earlier this month, fighting between forces loyal to Jubbaland regional administration and Somali National Army spilled over into Mandera town that borders Somalia’s Bulla Hawa. Somali forces say they were pursuing a fugitive local minister in Jubbaland wanted for crimes in Mogadishu. Somalia accused Kenya of harbouring the minister, Abdirashid Janan.
Jubbaland consists of three provinces; Gedo, Middle Jubba and Lower Jubba, but control of Lower Jubba and Kismayu port is the biggest prize. Jubbaland is a potentially rich region, with good seasonal rainfall, year-round rivers, forests, and lush farm- and range-lands, as well as potential offshore oil and gas deposits.
The domestic stakes are high, as clan factions fight over the division of resources.
In October 2011, Kenya entered Somalia to fight al Shabab group, which it accused of abducting foreign tourists inside its territory. Later, it became part of the African Union mission to help Somali government defeat al Shabab.
For long, Nairobi wanted to establish a buffer zone in Jubbaland to prevent al Shabab militants from crossing into Kenya. If it can prevent al Shabab attacks because of the buffer zone, its tourism sector will flourish and a massive project on Lamu Port will go on, as investors will have no fear of attacks coming from Somalia.
Ten years later, Jubbaland remains one of Somalia’s most-unstable regions and it failed to act as a buffer zone to stop al Shabab from carrying out attacks inside Kenya. Since Kenyan troops entered Somalia, the al Qaeda-linked group carried out dozens of attacks in Kenya, killing hundreds of Kenyan citizens in the process.
Kenya’s interest in Jubbaland goes beyond creating a buffer zone and stopping al Shabab from entering Kenya. It sees economic interest in Jubbaland. Some influential Kenyan politicians and well-connected businesspeople want access to Kismayu port to avoid paying taxes at the port of Mombasa.
Though banned by the United Nations Security Council, the harvesting and export of charcoal has become a particularly lucrative industry, and continues to flourish with the help of Kenyan troops who are part of the African Union Mission in Somalia, commonly known as Amisom. Moreover, some within the Kenyan government are benefitting from this illegal trade, according to a United Nations report.
With a weak central government in place, whoever controls Kismayu can have influence over oil deposits in a contested maritime zone. Kenya supported the re-election of Ahmed Mohamed Islam, also known as Madobe, in August 2019, despite opposition from Mogadishu.
Both Kenya and Somalia claim ownership of 100,000 square kilometres triangle in the Indian Ocean believed to have large deposits of oil and gas. In 2014, Somalia sued Kenya at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing Nairobi of encroaching part of its territory. Kenya tried to persuade Somalia to withdraw the case from the ICJ and settle the dispute of the court, but Somalia rejected Kenya’s plea.
“There is nothing ideological that ties Kenya to Madobe, except the fact that he is the best person to guarantee security which is in our interest. It is about the stability of the region, prosperity and security,” says Peter Kagwanja, a University of Nairobi lecturer told Kenya’s second-largest newspaper, The Standard.
Kenya also wants to get rid of Somali refugees, but before it does that, it may want to create some resemblance of stability in Jubbaland so that it could repatriate hundreds of thousands of Somali refugees living in camps in northeastern Kenya, and convince the international community that the region is safe and refugees can return. The Kenyan government says al Shabab elements hide in refugee camps where they plan attacks in the country.
Kenya’s action in Jubbaland may result in a clan warfare not only within Somalia but also in Ethiopia and Kenya, where clans in Jubbaland dispute also live.
The disagreement between Somalia and Kenya could jeopardise the security cooperation between the two – a big boon for al-Shabab – which is a pain in the neck for both countries.
Presidents Mohamed Farmajo and Uhuru Kenyatta are meeting in Nairobi this week to try to resolve their differences. Mogadishu and Nairobi can ill afford to take their eyes off the ball – al- Shabab, their common enemy, and waste their energy on resolvable diplomatic disputes.
Al Shabab has been driven out of major towns in Somalia but it is still capable of conducting high-profile attacks within and outside of Somalia, Kenya being the most vulnerable.
The top 10 Twitter accounts to follow in Somali politics
Twitter is so stuffed full of political news, opinion and analysis that are hard to pick out the worthwhile comments from the rest.
But, if you follow the right accounts, you will enjoy a feed which is insightful, informative, and witty in its coverage of Somalia politics.
The Frontier has compiled the top 10 Twitter accounts to follow if you are interested in Somali politics, so you can keep up with all the latest news, analysis, controversy, surprises, and the latest development as they happen. The list includes journalists, analysts, academics, and others.
This is not meant to be a comprehensive list of the biggest or best known accounts. This is the Twitter accounts that we judged to be the most influential and smartest on all shades of the political spectrum, based on best use of Twitter through frequency, aggregation, interaction, and how useful we felt their content is.
We did not consider the number of followers they have.
Do you think we missed a brilliant Twitter account that should be on this list? Make your case in the comments below.
The list below is in no particular order of rank.
Harun is a VOA journalists and host for Investigative Dossier, a VOA radio program and the first-of-its-kind by Somali media. He tweets breaking news on politics, security, and anything else on Somalia. He is a must-follow for Somalia breaking news.
Rashid is a researcher and an analyst. He tweets on security, migration, stabilisation, political, and geopolitical developments. He is an essential follow for anyone interested in Somalia political analysis. He is a researcher at Research and Evidence Facility. He is a former Horn of Africa project director at International Crisis Group, and a former analyst at BBC Monitoring.
Afyare is an assistant professor of international politics at the Qatar University’s International Affairs Department. He is the author of “Understanding the Somalia Conflagration: Identity, Political Islam and Peacebuilding.” He tweets on Somalia politics, and could be of help if you are interested.
Adam Aw Hirsi
Adam is a former minister in Jubbaland, a regional admnistartion in southern Somalia. He also served as policy advisor to Somalia prime minister. He tweets on politics, and also acts as fact-checker for those he finds tweeting or writing false information on Somalia.
Abdimalik is a researcher and an analyst. His tweets mainly focus on politics, governance, and geo-politics. He was recently appointed as a lead researcher communications officer at Somali Public Agenda. He provides world-class analysis on Somali politics, and sometimes offers recommendations. He is an essential follow if you need to understand Somali politics, both at federal and state levels.
Abdirashid is the director of Heritage Institute, a think-tank based in Mogadishu. He is also former government minister, an analyst at International Crisis Group, and a communications director at Villa Somalia. He is an expert on Somali issues, and would be helpful if you follow him. He provides recommendations in his tweets.
Farah is a former Deputy Speaker of the Kenya National Assembly, and served as a member of parliament for 10 years. He advocates for a stronger, effective Somali central government.
He backs the federal government irrespective of who is in charge of Villa Somalia. He tweets against foreign interference in Somalia and is a vocal defender of the current administration. If you are interested in how foreign countries do interfere with Somalia’s internal affairs, Farah is an ideal follow.
Abdulaziz Bilow Ali
Abdulaziz is a journalist working for China Global Television based in Mogadishu. He tweets everything-Somalia, including breaking news. If you need to catch up with the latest news and development, he is a nice follow.
Sahra Abdi Ahmed
Sahra is a VOA journalist. She has more than 15 years’ experience in journalism, and she previously worked with Reuters. Her tweets focus on politics and social issues.
Hassan is a freelance journalist based in Mogadishu. He tweets breaking news and news reports on Somalia, and other Somalia-related stories. He is an ideal follow.
Somalia, Kenya row: What is at stake?
The relationship between Somalia and Kenya continues to deteriorate, each feeling undermined by the other.
Somalia accuses Kenya of meddling in its internal affairs and warned Nairobi to stop its encroachment in the border areas. Kenya denied the claims as “baseless and invalid”.
On its part, Kenya has accused Somalia of violating its territorial integrity when fighting between a militia group allied to Abdirashid Janan, minister of security in Jubbaland, a regional administration in southern Somalia and Somali National Army in the border town of Buula Hawa spilled into Mandera town on the Kenyan side last week, forcing hundreds of Mandera residents to flee. Somalia blamed Kenya for backing the militia and harbouring Janan.
President Mohamed Farmajo and his Kenyan counterpart Uhuru Kenyatta spoke by phone and agreed to deescalate the situation, work together to improve border security, and form a joint committee to strengthen diplomatic and trade ties.
Here are issues that are threatening ties between the two neighbours.
The two neighbours are engaged in a border dispute in the Indian Ocean, a 100 square kilometres triangle rich in oil and gas.
Kenya has accused Somalia of auctioning part of its oil blocks in the Indian Ocean to Western oil firms during an oil conference in London in February 2019.
Somalia denied Kenya’s allegations, and said the conference was meant to present the results of seismic surveys and showcase possible locations in the country where oil reserves can be extracted in the future.
After the London event, Kenya ordered Somalia’s ambassador in Nairobi to leave the country and recalled its ambassador in Mogadishu.
In 2014, Somalia sued Kenya at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing Nairobi of encroaching part of its territory. Kenya tried to persuade Somalia to withdraw the case from the ICJ and settle the dispute of the court, but Somalia rejected Kenya’s plea.
Somalia wants the maritime boundary to run southeast as an extension of the land border while Kenya says the border should run eastwards following the line of latitude. The ICJ is expected to deliver a judgment later this year.
The case was to be heard in September initially, but was postponed to November following a request by Kenya. The ICJ may also review another request made by Kenya for a 12-month delay of the public hearing.
Kenya has troops in Somalia under the African Union Mission stationed in Jubbaland. Nairobi backs Jubbaland regional government led by Ahmed Mohamed Islam, also known as Madobe, because Kenya wants Jubbaland to acts as a buffer zone against al Shabab militants and for its regional interests. Despite the ‘buffer zone,’ al Shabab carries out deadly attacks inside Kenya.
In August 2019, Jubbaland held a controversial election in which Madobe was declared the winner. President Farmajo’s administration rejected the result, saying the election was not credible. Kenya backed Madobe’s election and sent delegation to Kismayu during his inauguration.
Somalia wants Kenya to stop interfering in its internal affairs, both at state and national levels. Jubbaland is one of Somalia’s federal member states.
Somalia is accusing Kenya of harbouring Jubbaland security minister Abdirashid Janan, who escaped from a Mogadishu prison in January.
Mogadishu accuses Janan of committing grave human rights violations and killing civilians in Gedo province, southwest Somalia. Janan was held for months and was awaiting trial. He is believed to be in Mandera
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