By Abdinoor Ali
The growing political uncertainty in Somalia will slow down the progress the country made in the last decade. Lack of clear election laws makes the election – delayed for a month now – makes the electoral process complex.
On 17 September 2020, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and five regional leaders agreed on a revised election procedure based on the 2016 Somali parliamentary election. In the deal, clan elders verified by federal and state authorities would elect a parliament, whose members would then select a president. The Federal Government of Somalia agreed with member states to hold parliamentary elections on 1 December 2020.
The battle for villa Somalia will become fiercer—both because of disagreement over how to implement a September 2020 political agreement and because of foreign influence. Somalis need to put their country first and find a way to get out of the current mess – for their own people’s benefit.
Somalis are not voting in this election – clan elders will — and see politicians pulling their countries in opposite directions. Those who want to frustrate the election process and those who call for a partial election.
The contest between President Farmaajo and a coalition of opposition parties must be done in a peaceful environment that will guarantee an outcome agreeable to all. The two sides must talk, and there are sings showing progress towards this is being done. This week, the prime minister, Hussein Mohamed Roble met opposition leaders and resolved a number of issues including putting off planned protests against the government because of fear of potential violence and because of Covid-19.
Tensions spiked last week, leading to exchanges of gunfire on the streets of the capital, Mogadishu, and heightening fears that the election dispute could spiral into civil conflict.
Even so, all sides seem to be coming together for talks and agree on the main zone of contention: Gedo, Somaliland and membership of the electoral commission.
To avoid further delay, parties must come together as soon as possible. The government is under pressure to hold elections but it cannot do it alone, regional governments must support the process and cooperate.
Whatever happens, a partial or parallel elections and violence must be avoided and the government must retain its focus on al Shabab.